The Effect of Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, Inflation, Net Exports on Economic Growth in Indonesia


Abstract
The steady transformation of a nation's economy toward improved circumstances over a given time frame is known as economic growth. It can be characterized as a rise in national income corresponding to an economy's increased capacity for production. This study examines the partial and simultaneous effects of inflation, net exports, Interest rates currency rates on Indonesia's economic development between 2015 and 2023. The data used in this study were secondary quarterly time series data from Indonesia from 2001 to 2023. Analysis is done using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). The findings show that the currency exchange rate, SBI interest rates, inflation, and net exports all have a significant impact on Indonesia's economic growth, both separately and in combination.
Downloads
References
Adi, L., & Budiarti, W. (2015). Pengaruh Tingkat Bunga Dan Pendapatan Nasional Terhadap Tabungan Di Indonesia, Malaysia Dan Thailand. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 19(2), 91–102. https://doi.org/10.24123/jeb.v19i2.1589.
Baltagi, B. H. (2021). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (Springer Texts in Business and Economics) - Sixth Edition. Springer.
Bambang, J. (2012). Ekonometrika Deret Waktu : Teori dan Aplikasi. IPB Press.
Caslin, T. (2018). Macro-economic theory. Theories of Welfare. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429466908-3.
Das, P. (2019). Econometrics in Theory and Practice: Analysis of Cross Section, Time Series and Panel Data With Stata 15.1. Econometrics in Theory and Practice: Analysis of Cross Section, Time Series and Panel Data with Stata 15.1. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-32-9019-8.
Ekinci, R., Tüzün, O., & Ceylan, F. (2020). The Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth: Experinces of Some Inflation Targeting Countries. Financial and Monetary Research, Bucharest, 24(1), 6–20. http://www.centralbanknews.info/p/inflation-targets.html.
Ervani, E. (2013). Export and Import Performance of Indonesia’s Agriculture Sector. Jejak, 6(1), 54–63.https://journal.unnes.ac.id/nju/index.php/jejak/article/view/3748Estevadeordal, A. (2017). Why Trade Facilitation Matters Now More Than Ever. Policy in Brief. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/global_20170405_trade-facilitation.pdf
Fiaz, A., Khurshid, N., & Satti, A. ul H. (2022). Revisiting The Macroeconomic Variables and Economic Growth Nexus: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(1), 101–112. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art8
Ginting, A. M. (2017). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 11(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v11i1.185
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2013). Dasar-Dasar Ekonometrika (D. A. Halim, Ed.; 5th ed.). Salemba Empat
Hadush, M., Gebregziabher, K., & Biruk, S. (2023). Determinants of Economic Growth in East African Countries: A Dynamic Panel Model Approach. Cogent Economics and Finance, 11(2). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2239629
Hatim, F., Muhammad, N. I., Azzaki, M. A., & Nasar, F. (2024). Factors Influeincing Foreign Direct Investment in Muslin Countries: The Role of Financial Developments. Al-Intaj, 10(2), 123-142. http://dx.doi.org/10.29300/aij.v10i2.4076
Heriqbaldi, U., Esquivias, M. A., Handoyo, R. D., Rifami, A. C., & Rohmawati, H. (2023). Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows in Indonesia and Ten Main Trade Partners: Asymmetric Effects. Studies in Economics and Finance (Vol. 40). https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-10-2021-0451
Hoang, T. T., Thi, V. A. N., & Minh, H. D. (2020). The Impact Of Exchange Rate on Inflation And Economic Growth in Vietnam. Management Science Letters, 10(5), 1051–1060. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.msl.2019.11.004
Hodijah, S., & Angelina, G. P. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor dan Impor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen Terapan Dan Keuangan (Mankeu), 10(1), 53–62. https://doi.org/10.55047/transekonomika.v2i6.275
Hossain, R. (2022). The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Openness on Economic Growth amid Crises in Asian Economies. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(2), 217–229. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss2.art7
Kusumastuti, A. D., Mutiasari, A. I., Paningrum, D., & Cahyani, R. R. (2022). Pengaruh Faktor Makroekonomi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Periode 2018-2020. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 26(1), 19–29. https://doi.org/10.24123/jeb.v26i1.4959
Luhfiana, H. A. S., Imaniar, L. A., & Mumtaz, J. (2022). Pengaruh Inflasi dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Pertumbuhan Perekonomian Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi, 13, 1–19. https://ejurnal.esaunggul.ac.id/index.php/Eko/article/view/5451
Majok, A. J., Kaluge, D., & Satria, D. (2024). Analyzing the Effects of Interest Rates, Inflation, and Exchange Rates on Stock Market Performance: A Comparative Study Of Indonesia and Japan. Journal of Indonesian Applied Economics, 12(1), 13–26. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jiae.2024.012.01.2
Makmur, M., Sjahruddin, H., Deni, D., Chandrasasmito, C., Puspitasari, D., Satri, N. A., … Bongaya, M. (2023). Dampak Inflasi Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi. Agustus, 16(2), 720–731. Retrieved from https://www.jbbe.lppmbinabangsa.id/index.php/jbbe/article/view/436
Mankiw, N. G. (2019). Macroeconomics (edisi ke-10). Worth Publishers.
Martín, S. (2021). El Debate de la Política Económica de Ávila Camacho A Contemporaneous Perspective Introducción, 62, 215–244. https://doi.org/10.22201/iih.24485004e.2021.62.77227.
Mazorodze, B. T. (2024). Exports, government debt and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Cogent Economics and Finance, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2426534
Nguyen, D. D., & Huyen, M. T. (2024). Does Inflation Affect Emissions Reduction? Experimental Research in Vietnam. International Journal of Asian Business and Information Management, 15(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.4018/IJABIM.347507
Nurajizah, S. A., Allena, S., Utama, R., & Kurniawan, M. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Tahun (2014-2023). Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Keuangan Islam, 2(3), 229–240. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.61132/santri.v2i3.645
Pangaribuan, M., Rahma, F. N., Helen, W., Michael, G., & Siregar, T. M. (2024). Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi. MANTAP: Journal of Management Accounting, Tax and Production, 2(1), 300–303. https://doi.org/10.57235/mantap.v2i1.1901
Pollin, R., & Bouazza, H. (2024). Considerations on Inflation, Economic Growth, and The 2 Per Cent Inflation Target. Review of Keynesian Economics, 12(4), 453–474. https://doi.org/10.4337/roke.2024.0006
Rangkuty, D. M., Nasution, L. N., & Ramadhani, A. E. (2020). Analisis Variabel Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. JEpa, 5(1), 78–85. https://jurnal.pancabudi.ac.id/index.php/jepa/article/view/857
Safitri, A. M., Anwar, K., & Abbas, T. (2022). Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Inflasi, Dan Ekspor Neto Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal, 5(1), 21. https://doi.org/10.29103/jeru.v5i1.7917
Salim, A., Fadila, & Purnamasari, A. (2021). Pengaruh Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. Ekonomica Sharia: Jurnal Pemikiran Dan Pengembangan Ekonomi Syariah, 7(1), 17–28. https://ejournal.stebisigm.ac.id/index.php/esha/article/view/268
Sarwar, S., Streimikiene, D., Waheed, R., & Mighri, Z. (2021). Revisiting The Empirical Relationship among The Main Targets of Sustainable Development: Growth, Education, Health and Carbon Emissions. Sustainable Development, 29(2), 419–440. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2156
Shintya, F., & Wahyudi, D. (2022). Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, Defisit Fiskal, dan Utang Luar Negeri Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia Periode 2017 – 2020. Kompak :Jurnal Ilmiah Komputerisasi Akuntansi, 15(2), 358–369. https://doi.org/10.51903/kompak.v15i2.769
Stanić, S., & Račić, Ž. V. (2019). Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors Effect to Gross Domestic Product of Bosnia and Herzegovina using The Multiple Linear Regression Model. ECONOMICS - Innovative and Economics Research Journal, 7(2), 91–97. https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2019-0022
Sugiharti, L., Esquivias, M. A., & Setyorani, B. (2020). The Impact Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Indonesia’s Top Exports To The Five Main Export Markets. Heliyon, 6(1), e03141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e03141
Syamsiyah, N., Ardana, Y., & Bayumi, M. R. (2022). Analisis Determinasi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Studi Kasus di Indonesia. Jurnal Hukum Dan Ekonomi Syariah, 10(2), 128–138. https://doi.org/10.32332/adzkiya.v10i02.4522
Tobă, D., Simion, D., & Țîrcă, D. M. (2023). Procyclical Economic Policy and Risks on Economic Growth Sustainability in Romania. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(3), 562–577. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.20275
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic Development. Thirteenth Edition. Pearson.
Ula, T. (2024). Gravity Model Analysis of Indonesia’s Trade Role within OIC Economies. Share: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Keuangan Islam, 13(1), 258. https://doi.org/10.22373/share.v13i1.20994
Umi, K. (2017). Pengaruh Pengangguran dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Sumatera Utara. Ekonomikawan (Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan,17(1), 87-94. https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v17i1.1183
Upadhyaya, Y. M., Kharel, K. R., Kharel, S., & Lamichhane, B. D. (2023). Exploring the Nexus Between Economic Growth and Economic Performance in Nepal. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 20(4), 310–323. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.20(4).2023.25
Van Dan, D., & Binh, V. D. (2019). The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Study. Studies in Computational Intelligence (Vol. 809). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-04200-4_67
Wardani, V. K. (2022). The Role of Bank Indonesia In Stabilizing Indonesia’s Economy Through Inflation Control. International Journal of Economics, Business and Innovation Research, 01(01), 190–202. https://e-journal.citakonsultindo.or.id/index.php/IJEBIR/article/view/54
Widarjono, A. (2018). Ekonometrika: Pengantar dan Aplikasinya Disertai Panduan Eviews. Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN. Edisi Kelima Cetakan Pertama.
Windhani, K., Purwaningsih, Y., Mulyaningsih, T., Samudro, B. R., & Hardoyono, F. (2023). Human Capital and Regional Economic Growth in Indonesia: A Spatial Analysis Approach. Indonesian Journal of Geography, 55(3), 473–487. https://doi.org/10.22146/ijg.88241
Wooldridge, J. M. (2018). Introductory Econometrics: Modern Approach (7th edition). Tolerance Analysis of Electronic Circuits Using MATHCAD. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315215402
Ybrayev, Z. (2021). Real exchange rate management and economic growth: export performance in Kazakhstan, 2009–2019. International Review of Applied Economics, 35(1), 64–90. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2020.1836135