PENGARUH FAKTOR MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP FLUKTUASI NILAI TUKAR DI KAWASAN ASIA TENGGARA PERIODE 2005-2014
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Abstract
Intisari - Dalam beberapa periode terakhir nilai tukar menjadi salah satu tolak ukur kemajuan perekonomian negara. Akan tetapi, nilai tukar juga dipengaruhi oleh faktor makroekonomi yang mengakibatkan terjadinya fluktuasi nilai tukar. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mendapatkan pemahaman tentang pengaruh faktor makroekonomi terhadap nilai tukar di kawasan Asia Tenggara periode 2005 – 2014. Metode Fixed Effect menjadi metode yang paling cocok mewakili data. Hasil analisis dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa dari semua faktor makroekonomi, hanya faktor ekspor yang memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap nilai tukar dibandingkan dengan faktor tingkat suku bunga, tingkat inflasi dan impor yang memberikan pengaruh negatif terhadap nilai tukar.
Kata kunci: Nilai Tukar, Ekspor, Tingkat Suku Bunga, Tingkat Inflasi, Impor, Fixed Effect.
Abstract - In recent period exchange rate has become one of the benchmarks from country’s economic progress. However, exchange rate is also affected by macroeconomic factors and it can influence fluctuations of exchange rate. This research was conducted to gain an understanding of the effect of macroeconomic factors on exchange rate in Southeast Asian countries period 2005 – 2014. Fixed effect method becomes the most compatible method to representing data. The result of the analysis is show that from all macroeconomic factors just only export factors that give a positive effect on exchange rate when the other factors gives a negative effect on exchange rate.
Key Words: Exchange Rate, Export, Interest Rate, Inflation Rate, Import, Fixed Effect.
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