Dampak Fluktuasi Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia Periode 2008.Q1-2018.Q4
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Abstract
Abstract-- Harga minyak dunia mempunyai pengaruh yang penting di Indonesia selama beberapa tahun terakhir dan memberikan kontribusi besar pada sektor ekonomi di negara. Penelitian ini menganalisis tentang pengaruh fluktuasi harga minyak dunia terhadap veriabel makro di Indonesia, dengan pendekatan vector autoregressive (VAR). Penelitian ini bertujuan mendapatkan pemahaman tentang dampak fluktuasi harga minyak dunia terhadap perekonomian Indonesia periode 2008.Q1-2018.Q4. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah time series analysis, dengan data dari SEKI BI, Badan Pusat Statistik, Energy Information Administration. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa fluktuasi harga minyak dunia berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat inflasi, dan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan juga terhadap harga minyak dunia periode selanjutnya. Hal tersebut dimungkinkan terjadi mengingat faktor pendorong fluktuasinya harga minyak dunia dipengaruhi oleh permintaan dan penawaran, serta peraturan dari OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries).
Kata kunci: Fluktuasi Harga Minyak, Efek Penawaran, Efek Permintaan, Inflasi, Nilai Tukar Perdagangan
Abstract-- The world oil price has an important influence in Indonesian economy over the past few years and it has contributed greatly to the economic sector in the country. This study investigates the influence of world oil prices on macro economic variables in Indonesia, using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. This research is intended to gain an understanding of the impact of world oil prices on the Indonesian economy in the period of 2008.Q1-2018.Q4. The analytical method used is the time series analysis, with data obtained from several sources, namely SEKI BI, Badan Pusat Statistik and Energy Information Administration. The results show that fluctuation in the world oil prices has a positive and significant effect on inflation. It also has a positive and significant effect on the previous year of the world oil prices. These analysis suggest two important points that : (1) the factors driving the fluctuation of world oil prices affected by demand and supply of oil in the world market. (2) the regulations of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries greatly influence to the oil prices.
Keywords: Oil Price Fluctuations, Supply Effects, Demand Effects, Inflation, Terms of Trade
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